Miami FC 0-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
47%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 29% vs market 22.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.11/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.10
-7% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
12.9 Crosses 15.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
1W-0D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.67 xG 1.28
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
272 Passes 456
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
19.03.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
07.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-3 HT 0-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
0-1
AWAY New Mexico United
2.11 xG 0.97
36% Ball Possession 64%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 9
164 Passes 391
64% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past Miami FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Miami FC had 36% of the ball to New Mexico United's 64%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.11 to 0.97 — the balance of chances actually favoured Miami FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Miami FC and 0.67 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs New Mexico United?

Miami FC 0-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated an New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 24%, draw 29%, New Mexico United 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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