Monterey Bay 3-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.8
Over 2.5
40%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.61
6+ Goals
8%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 36% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.6pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
1.37/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.67
-29% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.1 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.24 xG 1.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 Passes 397
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-2 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
17.03.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
30.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
16.04.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
22.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 3-3 HT 3-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
13.03.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 4-2 HT 4-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
3-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.83 xG 0.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
347 Passes 268
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 5
FAQ Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Monterey Bay beat Phoenix Rising 3-1 in the USL Championship on 30 Mar 2025. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

It projected a tighter game, with under 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score was close to even at 42%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 55% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 45%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.83 to 0.74.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours are even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.83 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?

Monterey Bay 3-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 42%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterey Bay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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