Benfica II 5-0 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.82
Over
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.09
2-3
41%
1.75
4-5
22%
3.51
6+
9%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica II The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra The Market 29%
-7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.54/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.47
+2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mafra
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.73 xG 1.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
290 Passes 335
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2025 Benfica II Benfica II 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
14.12.2024 Mafra Mafra 2-0 HT 2-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
20.01.2024 Mafra Mafra 1-2 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
13.08.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 3-2 HT 2-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
01.04.2023 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
18.10.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 5-1 HT 4-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
POST-MATCH Benfica II vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica II swept aside Mafra 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica II as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica II and 1.17 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Benfica II vs Mafra?

Benfica II 5-0 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica II vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Benfica II 45%, draw 27%, Mafra 28%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica II) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica II) ✗ Under 2.5
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