Tobol 5-0 Atyrau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 30 May 2025

Tobol
5-0 HT 3-0
Atyrau
📅30/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+2.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.9pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Atyrau EU Bookmakers 16%
+4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -4%
1.90/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.98
+3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atyrau
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
31.08.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 0-1 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
23.06.2024 Atyrau Atyrau 0-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.06.2024 Atyrau Atyrau 4-0 HT 2-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
29.05.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZKK
08.07.2023 Atyrau Atyrau 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
02.07.2023 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 Atyrau Atyrau KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Atyrau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol cruised past Atyrau 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tobol and 0.83 for Atyrau.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Atyrau?

Tobol 5-0 Atyrau in the Kazakistan - Super League on 30/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Atyrau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Tobol 63%, draw 22%, Atyrau 15%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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