TPS Turku 1-0 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 30 May 2026

📅30/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.9
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 29% vs market 27.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.76
1/2
10%
26.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
7%
6.42
X/2
15%
4.85
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
18%
3.1
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 46%
+13% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +6%
1.87/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.06
+52% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
Crosses 23.1
0.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-1D-3L
AWAY VPS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2021 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 0-2 VPS VPS FINY
01.09.2021 VPS VPS 1-2 HT 1-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
05.05.2021 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 1-0 VPS VPS FİN2
17.08.2018 TPS Turku TPS Turku 4-1 HT 2-0 VPS VPS FİN
04.07.2018 VPS VPS 2-0 HT 2-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
07.05.2018 TPS Turku TPS Turku 0-1 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
1-0
AWAY VPS
0.23 xG 1.55
35% Ball Possession 65%
1 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 9
170 Passes 375
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 44
10 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku nicked a narrow win over VPS 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, TPS Turku had 35% of the ball to VPS's 65%, shots finished 1-24, expected goals 0.23 to 1.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured VPS.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for TPS Turku and 1.50 for VPS.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs VPS?

TPS Turku 1-0 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 30%, draw 27%, VPS 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (VPS), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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