HJK Helsinki 1-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 30 May 2026

📅30/05/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
79%
1.22
Draw
15%
5.71
Away
6%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.61
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.63
2-3 Goals
37%
2.01
4-5 Goals
23%
2.51
6+ Goals
16%
5.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1.34
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
5%
24.8
X/1
21%
3.79
X/2
2%
24.35
X/X
5%
9.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.4
2/2
2%
20.6
2/X
4%
28.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
77%
+1.9pp
15%
Draw
14%
+0.1pp
6%
Away Win
8%
-2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 11%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
2.13/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.94
+12% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 71%
35.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
18.1 Crosses 12.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
5W-0D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
3.15 xG 0.72
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
491 Passes 295
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
49 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.01.2026 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
24.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 8-2 HT 3-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
24.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
14.02.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
1-0
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.96 xG 1.05
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
435 Passes 207
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki nicked a narrow win over IFK Mariehamn 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 63% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 37%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.96 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 1-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 79%, draw 15%, IFK Mariehamn 6%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
30 May 2026
17:00 KuPS Kuopio vs Inter Turku Analysis →
17:00 TPS Turku vs VPS Analysis →
17:00 Gnistan vs SJK Seinajoki Analysis →
17:00 FC Lahti vs Ilves Tampere Analysis →