HJK Helsinki 0-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 16 Jan 2026

📅16/01/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
21%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.0
Over 2.5
42%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 29% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.6pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.6pp
21%
Away Win
25%
-4.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
3.99/2.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.54
+150% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
6W-0D-0L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
3.15 xG 0.72
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
491 Passes 295
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
49 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 8-2 HT 3-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
24.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
14.02.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
0-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn squeezed past HJK Helsinki 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was HJK Helsinki at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 63% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 37%, shots finished 17-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 0-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - League Cup on 16/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 47%, draw 32%, IFK Mariehamn 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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