HJK Helsinki 8-2 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.28
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
11%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.98
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.33
2-3 Goals
36%
2.26
4-5 Goals
29%
2.44
6+ Goals
11%
4.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.39
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
4.0
X/2
4%
20.6
X/X
6%
9.98
2/1
9%
18.4
2/2
3%
15.85
2/X
5%
24.1
Value flag · X/1 at 4.0 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
74%
-1.2pp
16%
Draw
16%
+0.6pp
11%
Away Win
11%
+0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.88/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.80
-5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
450 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
17.4 Crosses 13.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
6W-0D-0L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.35 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
445 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
42 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
14.02.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
8-2
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
4.74 xG 0.62
74% Ball Possession 26%
27 Total Shots 4
15 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 0
630 Passes 186
92% Pass Accuracy 77%
65 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki swept aside IFK Mariehamn 8-2. Half-time: 3-1. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 8-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 74% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 26%, shots finished 27-4, expected goals 4.74 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 8-2 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 72%, draw 16%, IFK Mariehamn 11%. The final score 8-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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