IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.4
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
49%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
15%
+11.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.8pp
49%
Away Win
64%
-14.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
0.89/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.00
+9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +22%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
270 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
12.4 Crosses 20.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0W-1D-5L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.67 xG 1.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
265 Passes 457
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
27.05.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0-4
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.55 xG 4.18
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 55
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki ran out comfortable winners over IFK Mariehamn 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 43% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 57%, shots finished 7-27, expected goals 0.55 to 4.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.83 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

IFK Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 26%, draw 24%, HJK Helsinki 49%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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