Gwangju 2-1 Jeju United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 31% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.56
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
16%
4.28
X/2
7%
7.89
X/X
15%
4.6
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
6.05
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.4pp
33%
Draw
27%
+6.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Jeju United EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
0.99/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.37
-3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
24.0 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Jeju United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.20 xG 0.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
350 Passes 361
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2024 Jeju United Jeju United 1-3 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
01.10.2023 Jeju United Jeju United 1-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
11.07.2023 Jeju United Jeju United 0-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
26.04.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
18.09.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 1-1 HT 1-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
19.05.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 0-0 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
2-1
AWAY Jeju United
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
482 Passes 285
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Jeju United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju squeezed past Jeju United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gwangju as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 64% of the ball to Jeju United's 36%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gwangju had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gwangju and 0.67 for Jeju United.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Jeju United?

Gwangju 2-1 Jeju United in the South Kore - K League Classic on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Jeju United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 43%, draw 33%, Jeju United 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gwangju) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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