Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
52%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
51%
Away Win
51%
+0.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 55%
+17% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.69/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.44
+54% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +109%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
12.05.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
17.03.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
04.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
13.08.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
07.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
23.10.2022 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
3-1
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen beat Zalgiris Vilnius 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 43% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 57%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.33 for Zalgiris Vilnius.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 23%, draw 25%, Zalgiris Vilnius 51%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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