Macara 1-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Jun 2025

📅30/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.06
No
63%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.5pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.24/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.23
-43% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 80%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
20.6 Crosses 13.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Emelec
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.28 xG 1.63
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
192 Passes 363
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
09.11.2024 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
18.05.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-1 HT 0-1 Macara Macara EKV1
11.07.2022 Macara Macara 1-3 HT 1-2 Emelec Emelec EKV1
19.02.2022 Emelec Emelec 4-0 HT 4-0 Macara Macara EKV1
15.08.2021 Emelec Emelec 3-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
1-1
AWAY Emelec
1.68 xG 1.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
306 Passes 219
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Macara vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara and Emelec shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Macara at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Macara had 56% of the ball to Emelec's 44%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 1.68 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Macara and 1.83 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Macara vs Emelec?

Macara 1-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Macara 43%, draw 29%, Emelec 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Macara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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