Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Jun 2025

📅30/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.5pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 20%
+10% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +27%
1.27/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.28
+6% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
16.3 Crosses 14.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.67 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 213
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
15.04.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.10.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
11.02.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
03.08.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
04.02.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-2
AWAY Santa Fe
0.72 xG 0.68
67% Ball Possession 33%
11 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
334 Passes 143
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
10 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe edged past Independiente Medellin 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 67% of the ball to Santa Fe's 33%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.72 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.83 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 30/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 25%, Santa Fe 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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