Vasco da Gama 1-0 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 30 Jul 2026

📅30/07/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 25% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
16.7
X/1 EV+ ✓
30%
3.8
X/2
7%
12.05
X/X
5%
5.45
2/1
8%
23.5
2/2
9%
10.45
2/X
8%
19.1
Value flag · X/1 at 3.8 — our 30% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-5.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 19%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.37/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.21/2.13
-1% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
21.7 Crosses 16.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 1.41
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
385 Passes 349
12 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.07.2026 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-0
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.33 xG 0.24
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 4
370 Passes 224
29 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama squeezed past Independiente Medellin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.33 to 0.24.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

Vasco da Gama 1-0 Independiente Medellin in the Copa Sudamericana on 30/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 57%, draw 22%, Independiente Medellin 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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