Steinbach 1-1 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.86
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
24%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
28%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
50%
+8.7pp
18%
Draw
23%
-5.0pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-3.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Steinbach EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 31%
-20% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.93/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.19
+8% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
436 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Steinbach
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.07.2025 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-4 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach HAZ
21.03.2025 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-1 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
14.09.2024 Steinbach Steinbach 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
16.12.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-4 HT 2-4 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
20.08.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-0 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
03.12.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-1 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Steinbach vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Steinbach and Mainz 05 II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Steinbach at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Steinbach had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Steinbach and 1.67 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Steinbach vs Mainz 05 II?

Steinbach 1-1 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Steinbach vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Steinbach win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Steinbach 58%, draw 18%, Mainz 05 II 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Steinbach), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Steinbach) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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