Montedio Yamagata 3-2 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.37/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.63
+16% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.8 Crosses 20.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 Passes 266
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 2-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
14.11.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 4-3 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JPK
16.08.2015 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
12.04.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
3-2
AWAY Sagan Tosu
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
342 Passes 437
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata squeezed past Sagan Tosu 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Montedio Yamagata found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 45% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 55%, shots finished 17-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 2.50 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?

Montedio Yamagata 3-2 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J2 League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 35%, draw 28%, Sagan Tosu 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✗ Under 2.5
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