Nieciecza 1-3 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Aug 2025

Nieciecza
1-3 HT 1-0
Korona Kielce
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Nieciecza vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.65
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.63
X/2
10%
5.71
X/X
13%
4.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
19%
3.72
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nieciecza v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.56/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.42
-13% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
15.3 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Nieciecza vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nieciecza
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.09.2024 Nieciecza Nieciecza 1-2 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce HAZ
05.05.2021 Nieciecza Nieciecza 6-2 HT 3-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL1
30.09.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-3 HT 0-2 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
11.02.2018 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-3 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
26.08.2017 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
22.05.2017 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-2 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL

Nieciecza 1-3 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nieciecza
1-3
AWAY Korona Kielce
0.66 xG 2.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 24
6 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 1
286 Passes 359
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 42
17 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nieciecza vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce beat Nieciecza 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Korona Kielce found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nieciecza had 46% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 54%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 0.66 to 2.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Korona Kielce led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nieciecza and 1.83 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Nieciecza vs Korona Kielce?

Nieciecza 1-3 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nieciecza vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated an Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nieciecza 37%, draw 26%, Korona Kielce 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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