Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
8.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.94
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
18%
4.14
X/2
7%
10.6
X/X
11%
6.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.1
2/2
8%
8.08
2/X
5%
16.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 22%
-19% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.81/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.65
-21% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
19.4 Crosses 21.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.76 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 8
444 Passes 384
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.03.2025 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 4-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
13.09.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
0-1
AWAY Motor Lublin
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Gornik Zabrze 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Zabrze at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 59% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 41%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.50 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin?

Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 54%, draw 24%, Motor Lublin 21%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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