Penafiel 0-2 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 30 Aug 2025

Penafiel
0-2 HT 0-1
Chaves
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Penafiel vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.71
Over
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
31%
2.69
2-3
43%
1.7
4-5
18%
3.82
6+
8%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.69 — our 31% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Penafiel v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Penafiel The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves The Market 48%
Strong Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.11 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.41
1.55 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.39
Average Attackvs comparable teams Weak
Great Defensevs comparable teams Average
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
243 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.9 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2

Penafiel vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Chaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.03 xG 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
265 Passes 349
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
04.01.2025 Chaves Chaves 0-1 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
18.07.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 Chaves Chaves HAZ
06.03.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 2-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
10.10.2021 Chaves Chaves 3-1 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
29.03.2021 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Penafiel 0-2 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-2
AWAY Chaves
0.79 xG 2.49
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
221 Passes 288
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Penafiel vs Chaves
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Chaves had too much for Penafiel 2-0 on the road. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Chaves found the edge the numbers couldn't. Nothing to argue with on goals either — under 2.5 goals (57%) came home.

Under the surface, possession split 50% to 50% in Penafiel's favour, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.79 to 2.49.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Penafiel against 1.33 for Chaves.

Penafiel vs Chaves Result & Final Score

Penafiel 0-2 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Penafiel vs Chaves Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 33%, draw 29%, Chaves 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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