Al Nassr 2-1 Al Rayyan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.3
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
3.14
Over
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
21%
7.83
2-3
38%
2.29
4-5
28%
2.4
6+
13%
4.31
Value flag · 0-1 at 7.83 — our 21% vs market 8.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.15
X/1
15%
3.78
X/2
9%
19.8
X/X
7%
9.69
2/1
9%
18.8
2/2
5%
12.9
2/X
8%
20.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Al Nassr win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-11.4pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.8pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Rayyan EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.80/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.92
+4% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +74% / +63%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
441 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
20.5 Crosses 9.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
2-1
AWAY Al Rayyan
2.25 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
477 Passes 346
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Rayyan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Al Rayyan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Nassr had 57% of the ball to Al Rayyan's 43%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.25 to 0.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Nassr's control.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Rayyan?

Al Nassr 2-1 Al Rayyan in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Rayyan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 61%, draw 20%, Al Rayyan 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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