Persepolis 1-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.74
Over
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.83
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
17%
4.12
6+
10%
19.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.88
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
19.0
X/1
20%
3.4
X/2
9%
12.8
X/X
13%
5.03
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
9%
11.55
2/X
4%
20.25
Value flag · 1/X at 19.0 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-14.0pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.1pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persepolis EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.88/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.82
-11% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
26.9 Crosses 10.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persepolis
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.00 xG 0.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2020 Persepolis Persepolis 2-0 HT 0-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
06.05.2019 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0 HT 0-0 Persepolis Persepolis AŞMP
05.03.2019 Persepolis Persepolis 1-1 HT 1-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Persepolis
1-1
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
1.02 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
398 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Persepolis vs Pakhtakor Tashkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persepolis and Pakhtakor Tashkent couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Persepolis at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Persepolis had 52% of the ball to Pakhtakor Tashkent's 48%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.02 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Persepolis and 0.67 for Pakhtakor Tashkent.

What was the final score of Persepolis vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Persepolis 1-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persepolis vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persepolis win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Persepolis 49%, draw 27%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Persepolis), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Persepolis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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