Al Sadd 2-0 Esteghlal FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No Pick
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.97
2-3
35%
1.77
4-5
24%
3.94
6+
9%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.97 — our 32% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.72
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.3
X/2
15%
7.27
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
13%
5.65
2/X
10%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Sadd EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Esteghlal FC EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.72/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.44
-47% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.1 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Sadd
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Esteghlal FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.51 xG 0.57
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
351 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2018 Al Sadd Al Sadd 2-2 HT 1-1 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC AŞMP
27.08.2018 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC 1-3 HT 1-0 Al Sadd Al Sadd AŞMP
07.02.2017 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Sadd Al Sadd AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Sadd
2-0
AWAY Esteghlal FC
1.63 xG 0.64
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 13
306 Passes 381
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Sadd vs Esteghlal FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Sadd got the better of Esteghlal FC 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Sadd as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Sadd had 43% of the ball to Esteghlal FC's 57%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.63 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Sadd had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Sadd and 1.00 for Esteghlal FC.

What was the final score of Al Sadd vs Esteghlal FC?

Al Sadd 2-0 Esteghlal FC in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Sadd vs Esteghlal FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Sadd win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Sadd 44%, draw 25%, Esteghlal FC 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Sadd), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Sadd) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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