Derby County U21 4-1 Wolverhampton U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.59
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.43
No
37%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
32%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+9.2pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.8pp
63%
BTTS Yes
66%
-2.4pp
37%
BTTS No
34%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolverhampton U21 EU Bookmakers 54%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-1% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
365 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County U21
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Wolverhampton U21
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.55 xG 0.35
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
470 Passes 189
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
11.03.2024 Derby County U21 Derby County U21 1-2 HT 0-2 Wolverhampton U21 Wolverhampton U21 INGPL2-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County U21
4-1
AWAY Wolverhampton U21
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 7
481 Passes 238
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs Wolverhampton U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County U21 cruised past Wolverhampton U21 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Wolverhampton U21 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Derby County U21 had 62% of the ball to Wolverhampton U21's 38%, shots finished 18-11.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Wolverhampton U21?

Derby County U21 4-1 Wolverhampton U21 in the INGPL2 on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Wolverhampton U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wolverhampton U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 37%, draw 20%, Wolverhampton U21 43%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wolverhampton U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wolverhampton U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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