Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.2pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.02/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.45
-15% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 1.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Libertad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
22.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
18.04.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
24.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-3 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
08.07.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
2-1
AWAY Libertad
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion edged past Libertad 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Nacional Asuncion made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 47% of the ball to Libertad's 53%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 2.33 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 39%, draw 29%, Libertad 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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