Morecambe 2-5 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.26
2-3 Goals
43%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.52
6+ Goals
10%
5.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.27
1/2
7%
23.4
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.92
X/2
17%
6.32
X/X
11%
5.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.1
2/2
13%
3.63
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.6pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 39%
-21% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
0.03/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.35
-98% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +0%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
2-5
AWAY Gateshead
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gateshead ran out comfortable winners over Morecambe 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Gateshead made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Morecambe had 53% of the ball to Gateshead's 47%, shots finished 21-10.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Gateshead?

Morecambe 2-5 Gateshead in the England - National League on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 37%, draw 25%, Gateshead 38%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gateshead), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gateshead) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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