Lucena 1-2 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
9.57
Draw
27%
5.28
Away
55%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.51
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
8%
+10.2pp
27%
Draw
16%
+11.4pp
55%
Away Win
77%
-21.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucena EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 81%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.27
-100% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +78%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
8.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucena
1-2
AWAY Leganes
0.62 xG 2.93
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
295 Passes 458
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lucena vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes edged past Lucena 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leganes as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucena had 42% of the ball to Leganes's 58%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.62 to 2.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leganes's control.

What was the final score of Lucena vs Leganes?

Lucena 1-2 Leganes in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucena vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lucena 18%, draw 27%, Leganes 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leganes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leganes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSPK More Spain - Copa del Rey
30 Oct 2024
00:00 UE Olot vs Cordoba Analysis →
20:30 Europa vs Albacete Analysis →
21:00 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Gimnastic Tarragona Analysis →
21:00 Las Rozas vs Sevilla Analysis →
21:30 Mostoles vs Burgos Analysis →
21:30 Langreo vs Orihuela Analysis →