West Ham United 2-5 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Nov 2024

West Ham United
2-5 HT 2-5
Arsenal
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

West Ham United vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
50%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
12.35
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
21.7
X/1
10%
15.8
X/2
15%
4.05
X/X
10%
7.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.9
2/X
6%
20.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
15%
+11.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.8pp
50%
Away Win
66%
-15.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

West Ham United v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
0.85/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.94
+21% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +34%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 84%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
15.7 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

West Ham United vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.90 xG 2.16
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
251 Passes 570
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.02.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 0-6 HT 0-4 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
28.12.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
01.11.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 3-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
16.04.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
26.12.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
01.05.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 1-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

West Ham United 2-5 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
2-5
AWAY Arsenal
1.54 xG 3.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
252 Passes 400
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past West Ham United 5-2 away from home. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, West Ham United had 40% of the ball to Arsenal's 60%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.54 to 3.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for West Ham United and 2.33 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Arsenal?

West Ham United 2-5 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 27%, draw 23%, Arsenal 50%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
30 Nov 2024
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