Sampdoria 3-3 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
4.14
6+ Goals
12%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 30% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
14%
5.07
X/2
9%
7.92
X/X
12%
4.67
2/1
11%
31.5
2/2
10%
6.06
2/X
9%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.39/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.47
-12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.3 Crosses 13.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Catanzaro
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.85 xG 1.11
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
332 Passes 448
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-3 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
01.10.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-2 HT 1-2 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
3-3
AWAY Catanzaro
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
264 Passes 323
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria and Catanzaro shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sampdoria at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sampdoria had 46% of the ball to Catanzaro's 54%, shots finished 15-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sampdoria and 1.50 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?

Sampdoria 3-3 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 47%, draw 27%, Catanzaro 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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