SGV Freiberg 4-0 Steinbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
35%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
44%
Away Win
39%
+4.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Steinbach EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +10%
1.63/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.05
+11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Steinbach
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Steinbach Steinbach 0-2 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.05.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 1-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
28.10.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 0-1 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
05.04.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
24.09.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg swept aside Steinbach 4-0.

Our pre-match lean was Steinbach at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.40 for Steinbach.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

SGV Freiberg 4-0 Steinbach in the Germany - Regional League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

Before kick-off our model rated an Steinbach win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 30%, draw 26%, Steinbach 44%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Steinbach), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Steinbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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