SGV Freiberg 1-1 Steinbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.1pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Steinbach EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -17%
1.20/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/2.08
-29% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Steinbach
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 0-1 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
05.04.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
24.09.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SGV Freiberg
1-1
AWAY Steinbach
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg and Steinbach couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, SGV Freiberg had 50% of the ball to Steinbach's 50%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Steinbach led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for SGV Freiberg and 2.00 for Steinbach.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

SGV Freiberg 1-1 Steinbach in the Germany - Regional League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Steinbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 42%, draw 29%, Steinbach 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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