Libertad 2-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 20%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.99/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.70
+8% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
19.2 Crosses 12.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Emelec
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.66 xG 1.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
262 Passes 450
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
05.08.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
27.02.2023 Emelec Emelec 2-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY Emelec
1.15 xG 2.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
177 Passes 258
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad edged past Emelec 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 40% of the ball to Emelec's 60%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.15 to 2.12 — on chances, Emelec could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Emelec led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Libertad and 0.67 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Emelec?

Libertad 2-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Libertad 50%, draw 23%, Emelec 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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