Kisvarda 3-0 Ujpest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 31% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ujpest EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.51/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.86
-8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
28.8 Crosses 18.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kisvarda
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Ujpest
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.50 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
255 Passes 392
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.08.2025 Ujpest Ujpest 0-1 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
13.04.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 4-1 HT 3-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
16.12.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 4-0 HT 1-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
01.09.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 3-2 HT 1-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
14.05.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
17.02.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-1 HT 1-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kisvarda
3-0
AWAY Ujpest
1.10 xG 1.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
237 Passes 364
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kisvarda vs Ujpest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kisvarda ran out comfortable winners over Ujpest 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ujpest at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kisvarda had 43% of the ball to Ujpest's 57%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.10 to 1.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ujpest.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kisvarda and 0.83 for Ujpest.

What was the final score of Kisvarda vs Ujpest?

Kisvarda 3-0 Ujpest in the Hungary - NB I on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kisvarda vs Ujpest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kisvarda 33%, draw 26%, Ujpest 41%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ujpest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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