Burnley vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Burnley v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Burnley vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Burnley 1-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Newcastle United put daylight between themselves and Burnley 3-1 on the road. Half-time: 1-2.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 53% and both teams to score at 52%.
The match data tells the story: Newcastle United saw more of the ball, 52% to 48%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.10 to 2.31.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Burnley against 1.83 for Newcastle United.
Burnley vs Newcastle United Result & Final Score
Burnley 1 - 3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 30/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Burnley vs Newcastle United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Burnley 17%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 60%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.