Newcastle United 2-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Dec 2025

Newcastle United
2-1 HT 2-0
Burnley
📅06/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Newcastle United vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.33
Draw
15%
4.62
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.29
Over 2.5
65%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.9
No
44%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.84
6+ Goals
14%
7.93
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.58
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
19.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.89
X/2
4%
17.05
X/X
5%
7.48
2/1
10%
21.75
2/2
5%
14.4
2/X
5%
22.7
Value flag · X/1 at 3.89 — our 29% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
70%
+2.5pp
15%
Draw
18%
-3.5pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+0.9pp
35%
Under 2.5
40%
-4.8pp
65%
Over 2.5
60%
+4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+7.7pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
2.03/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.20
-3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -1%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
431 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 71%
36.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
23.7 Crosses 12.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Newcastle United vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Burnley
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.18 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
297 Passes 295
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Burnley Burnley 1-4 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
30.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
22.05.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.12.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
25.08.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
11.04.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 2-1 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-1
AWAY Burnley
1.77 xG 1.60
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 9
554 Passes 188
91% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United edged past Burnley 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle United had 69% of the ball to Burnley's 31%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.77 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newcastle United and 0.50 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Burnley?

Newcastle United 2-1 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 73%, draw 15%, Burnley 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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