Burnley 1-4 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 May 2024

Burnley
1-4 HT 0-3
Newcastle United
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Burnley vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.61
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.41
No
50%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.12
2-3 Goals
35%
2.08
4-5 Goals
25%
2.56
6+ Goals
14%
5.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.7
1/2
7%
20.25
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
11%
7.79
X/2
10%
4.91
X/X
10%
6.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
29.5
2/2
27%
2.5
2/X
5%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+4.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.0pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
67%
-16.9pp
50%
BTTS No
33%
+16.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 52%
+2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.47/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.42
-7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
20.9 Crosses 14.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Burnley vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Newcastle United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
296 Passes 285
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
22.05.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.12.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
25.08.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
11.04.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
03.10.2020 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Burnley 1-4 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-4
AWAY Newcastle United
1.04 xG 3.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 11
328 Passes 382
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 40
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United swept aside Burnley 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Burnley had 47% of the ball to Newcastle United's 53%, shots finished 17-23, expected goals 1.04 to 3.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Burnley and 1.67 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Newcastle United?

Burnley 1-4 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Burnley 33%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 44%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 May 2024
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