Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 May 2024

Arsenal
3-0 HT 1-0
Bournemouth
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.18
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.91
2-3 Goals
37%
2.18
4-5 Goals
29%
2.47
6+ Goals
16%
4.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
23.6
X/1
20%
3.65
X/2
6%
22.7
X/X
8%
9.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.6
2/2
7%
15.7
2/X
6%
22.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
79%
-17.9pp
20%
Draw
12%
+8.0pp
18%
Away Win
8%
+10.1pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 11%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +9%
2.33/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.01
+16% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -14%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
531 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 74%
45.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
19.7 Crosses 11.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 0.99
61% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
497 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
04.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.08.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.01.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal FAK
26.12.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
06.10.2019 Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP

Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
3-0
AWAY Bournemouth
3.38 xG 0.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
25 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
384 Passes 301
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
58 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past Bournemouth 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (64%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Arsenal had 55% of the ball to Bournemouth's 45%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 3.38 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 61%, draw 20%, Bournemouth 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 May 2024
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