Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 Hapoel Jerusalem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 31 Jan 2024

📅31/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.67
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
29%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.5pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.2pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maccabi Tel Aviv EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.46/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.91
-18% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
39.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.8 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maccabi Tel Aviv
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.69 xG 0.19
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
576 Passes 262
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
35 Box Touches 2
13 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem 1-2 HT 1-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maccabi Tel Aviv
2-1
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem
1.59 xG 0.89
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
496 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Jerusalem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maccabi Tel Aviv edged past Hapoel Jerusalem 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maccabi Tel Aviv as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maccabi Tel Aviv had 65% of the ball to Hapoel Jerusalem's 35%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.59 to 0.89.

What was the final score of Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Jerusalem?

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 Hapoel Jerusalem in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Jerusalem?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Maccabi Tel Aviv 62%, draw 22%, Hapoel Jerusalem 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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