Chelsea U21 2-1 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League Cup, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
33%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
10%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
70%
-25.6pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
33%
Away Win
14%
+19.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.5pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea U21 EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+46% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
438 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea U21
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Derby County U21
4.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 2
381 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
29.11.2024 Derby County U21 Derby County U21 2-6 HT 1-3 Chelsea U21 Chelsea U21 INGPL2
08.11.2024 Derby County U21 Derby County U21 4-3 HT 1-3 Chelsea U21 Chelsea U21 İNPLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea U21
2-1
AWAY Derby County U21
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
459 Passes 272
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea U21 nicked a narrow win over Derby County U21 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea U21 as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea U21 had 61% of the ball to Derby County U21's 39%, shots finished 9-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 4.50 goals for Chelsea U21 and 3.00 for Derby County U21.

What was the final score of Chelsea U21 vs Derby County U21?

Chelsea U21 2-1 Derby County U21 in the England - Premier League Cup on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chelsea U21 44%, draw 23%, Derby County U21 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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