Adelaide United (K) 2-1 Melbourne City (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 31 Jan 2026

Adelaide United (K)
2-1 HT 1-0
Melbourne City (K)
📅31/01/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2025/2026

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
16%
3.72
Away
59%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.18
Over 2.5
61%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.3pp
16%
Draw
23%
-7.7pp
60%
Away Win
53%
+6.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
42%
-3.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
58%
+3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United (K) v Melbourne City (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.14/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.90
+9% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +41%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 81%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
17.4 Crosses 11.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United (K)
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.80 xG 2.42
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
242 Passes 458
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
16.03.2025 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 4-3 HT 3-1 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
20.12.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 1-3 HT 1-2 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
18.02.2024 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
06.01.2024 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 0-5 HT 0-4 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
30.11.2019 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
01.12.2018 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Adelaide United (K) 2-1 Melbourne City (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United (K)
2-1
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.43 xG 0.80
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
263 Passes 291
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United (K) nicked a narrow win over Melbourne City (K) 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Melbourne City (K) at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 47% of the ball to Melbourne City (K)'s 53%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.43 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 2.50 for Melbourne City (K).

What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Adelaide United (K) 2-1 Melbourne City (K) in the Australia - W-League on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 25%, draw 16%, Melbourne City (K) 60%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
31 Jan 2026
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