PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 31 Mar 2024

PEC Zwolle
1-3 HT 0-2
Ajax
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
53%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.57
2-3 Goals
36%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.64
6+ Goals
15%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.73
1/2
7%
20.2
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
10%
11.1
X/2
21%
4.03
X/X
8%
6.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.94
2/X
8%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.3pp
53%
Away Win
57%
-4.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.30/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.26/1.30
-13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.2
15.8 Crosses 19.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Ajax
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.01 xG 2.61
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
259 Passes 552
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 51
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
30.04.2022 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
11.09.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
14.03.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
12.12.2020 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 3-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
01.11.2019 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-4 HT 1-3 Ajax Ajax HOL

PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
1-3
AWAY Ajax
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
476 Passes 420
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 53% of the ball to Ajax's 47%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.83 for Ajax.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?

PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 26%, draw 22%, Ajax 53%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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