Bosna-Hersek 1-1 İtalya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 31 Mar 2026

Bosna-Hersek
1-1 HT 0-1
İtalya
📅31/03/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Bosna-Hersek vs İtalya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
60%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 31% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
11.25
1/2
5%
23.95
1/X
7%
19.75
X/1
5%
12.7
X/2
15%
3.77
X/X
13%
5.45
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
40%
1.81
2/X
4%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
15%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
60%
Away Win
64%
-4.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.0pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bosna-Hersek v İtalya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bosna-Hersek EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya EU Bookmakers 69%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.51/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.39
-13% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 462 · 85%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
14.6 Crosses 6.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0

Bosna-Hersek vs İtalya Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bosna-Hersek
0W-1D-4L
AWAY İtalya
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.21 xG 1.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
326 Passes 563
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.06.2024 İtalya İtalya 1-0 HT 1-0 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek HAZ
18.11.2020 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek 0-2 HT 0-1 İtalya İtalya AVUL
04.09.2020 İtalya İtalya 1-1 HT 0-0 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek AVUL
15.11.2019 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek 0-3 HT 0-2 İtalya İtalya AVŞE
11.06.2019 İtalya İtalya 2-1 HT 0-1 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek AVŞE

Bosna-Hersek 1-1 İtalya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bosna-Hersek
1-1
AWAY İtalya
1.90 xG 0.99
65% Ball Possession 35%
30 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
615 Passes 286
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
54 Box Touches 18
54 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bosna-Hersek vs İtalya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bosna-Hersek and İtalya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. İtalya carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Bosna-Hersek had 65% of the ball to İtalya's 35%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 1.90 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, İtalya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Bosna-Hersek and 1.80 for İtalya.

What was the final score of Bosna-Hersek vs İtalya?

Bosna-Hersek 1-1 İtalya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 31/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bosna-Hersek vs İtalya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Bosna-Hersek 16%, draw 25%, İtalya 60%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (İtalya), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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