Al Hilal Riyadh 1-1 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 31 May 2024

📅31/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.05
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
44%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
31%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.85
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
28.5
1/X
3%
13.25
X/1
11%
4.98
X/2
12%
6.66
X/X
9%
5.78
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
21%
4.24
2/X
9%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 12% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
45%
-9.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.1pp
44%
Away Win
31%
+13.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.7pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +52% / +52%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
Crosses 8.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.05 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 325
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.05.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
08.04.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUSK
08.02.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr HAZ
01.12.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 3-0 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
12.08.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 1-2 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr AŞMPL
18.04.2023 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
1-1
AWAY Al Nassr
1.12 xG 1.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
376 Passes 328
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 33
22 Crosses 23
7 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh and Al Nassr couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 53% of the ball to Al Nassr's 47%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 1.12 to 1.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 0.67 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Al Hilal Riyadh 1-1 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 31/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 35%, draw 21%, Al Nassr 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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