St. Louis City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.8
2-3 Goals
38%
2.05
4-5 Goals
26%
2.49
6+ Goals
14%
5.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.25
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.0
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
9%
9.2
X/X
10%
6.64
2/1
7%
19.2
2/2
12%
5.96
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.0 — our 12% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.6pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.67/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.71
-12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.6 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
4W-0D-0L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.22 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 Passes 366
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 1-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
04.07.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 2-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
25.06.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
19.03.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
2-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.74 xG 0.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
299 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City edged past San Jose Earthquakes 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Louis City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, St. Louis City had 47% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 53%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.74 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, St. Louis City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for St. Louis City and 0.50 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

St. Louis City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 44%, draw 27%, San Jose Earthquakes 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Louis City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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