San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.39
No
45%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.04
2-3 Goals
39%
2.07
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.1
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.69
X/2
9%
6.38
X/X
12%
6.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.3
2/2
16%
3.63
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
41%
+4.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
68%
-13.2pp
45%
BTTS No
32%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.53/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.96
-9% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.4
21.1 Crosses 29.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
0W-0D-3L
AWAY St. Louis City
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.22 xG 2.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
342 Passes 287
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.07.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 2-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
25.06.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
19.03.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
1-2
AWAY St. Louis City
1.31 xG 1.72
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
440 Passes 328
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis City nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was San Jose Earthquakes at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 56% of the ball to St. Louis City's 44%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.31 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, St. Louis City led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 2.33 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 46%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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