Austin 0-1 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
34%
3.35
Away
32%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.86
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
8%
5.82
X/2
14%
5.42
X/X
19%
4.75
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
10%
3.48
2/X
9%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.2pp
34%
Draw
26%
+8.1pp
32%
Away Win
38%
-5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 42%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
1.29/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.05
+17% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
20.2 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.32 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
301 Passes 385
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Austin Austin 1-0 HT 0-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
21.04.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-1 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
25.06.2023 Austin Austin 3-0 HT 2-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
28.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
19.03.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
13.07.2022 Austin Austin 3-1 HT 1-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
0-1
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.91 xG 1.18
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
305 Passes 403
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Austin vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo edged past Austin 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 34% / 32%) promised a tight game; Houston Dynamo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Austin had 45% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 55%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.91 to 1.18 — on chances, Austin could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Austin and 0.83 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Austin vs Houston Dynamo?

Austin 0-1 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Austin 33%, draw 34%, Houston Dynamo 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
22 Sep 2024
02:30 CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
02:30 Columbus Crew vs Orlando City Analysis →
02:30 New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United Analysis →
03:30 Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United Analysis →
03:30 FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC Analysis →
03:30 Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Analysis →