Manchester City 2-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 31 Jul 2024

Manchester City
2-2 HT 1-2
Barcelona
📅31/07/2024 · 🕒03:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Manchester City vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
4.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.35
No
44%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
10.55
2-3 Goals
38%
2.61
4-5 Goals
27%
2.32
6+ Goals
14%
3.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.72
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.35
X/1
14%
4.36
X/2
10%
13.55
X/X
8%
8.83
2/1
6%
16.5
2/2
10%
7.84
2/X EV+ ✓
11%
15.45
Value flag · 2/X at 15.45 — our 11% vs market 3.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-13.1pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.6pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
22%
+23.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
78%
-23.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
70%
-14.0pp
44%
BTTS No
30%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 21%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.76/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
-11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
452 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 82%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
6.8 Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Manchester City vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
3.57 xG 1.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
339 Passes 492
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
24.08.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 3-3 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City HAZ
01.11.2016 Manchester City Manchester City 3-1 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
19.10.2016 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
18.03.2015 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP
24.02.2015 Manchester City Manchester City 1-2 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
12.03.2014 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City ŞMP

Manchester City 2-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
2-2
AWAY Barcelona
1.64 xG 0.84
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
548 Passes 405
90% Pass Accuracy 90%
46 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City and Barcelona shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Manchester City had 57% of the ball to Barcelona's 43%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.64 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Manchester City and 2.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Barcelona?

Manchester City 2-2 Barcelona in the Friendlies on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 51%, draw 24%, Barcelona 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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