Auxerre 2-1 Troyes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 31 Jul 2024

📅31/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.15
Over 2.5
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.17
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 28% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.23
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
6%
9.09
X/X
11%
5.55
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
11%
6.5
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Troyes EU Bookmakers 26%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.41/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.26/1.26
-22% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -78% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Troyes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.63 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
352 Passes 388
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 2-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
23.09.2023 Troyes Troyes 1-2 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
01.04.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
04.11.2022 Troyes Troyes 1-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
23.07.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes HAZ
30.01.2021 Troyes Troyes 3-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Troyes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre edged past Troyes 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auxerre had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Auxerre and 0.83 for Troyes.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Troyes?

Auxerre 2-1 Troyes in the Friendlies on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Troyes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 49%, draw 25%, Troyes 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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