Alianza Lima 1-0 Union Comercio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 31 Jul 2024

📅31/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.18
Draw
23%
5.71
Away
18%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.75
No
54%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
80%
-20.8pp
23%
Draw
14%
+8.9pp
18%
Away Win
6%
+11.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
32%
+14.2pp
54%
BTTS No
68%
-14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 8%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
2.00/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.97
+5% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 74%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
21.0 Crosses 9.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Union Comercio
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.43
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
266 Passes 268
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-3 HT 0-2 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
18.09.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 3-1 HT 1-1 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
23.04.2023 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-3 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
24.11.2019 Union Comercio Union Comercio 2-3 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
07.06.2019 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
21.09.2018 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-3 HT 1-2 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-0
AWAY Union Comercio
0.62 xG 0.03
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 2
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 0
453 Passes 176
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 2
20 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Union Comercio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima nicked a narrow win over Union Comercio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 68% of the ball to Union Comercio's 32%, shots finished 13-2, expected goals 0.62 to 0.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.17 for Union Comercio.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Union Comercio?

Alianza Lima 1-0 Union Comercio in the Peru - Premier League on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Union Comercio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 59%, draw 23%, Union Comercio 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PER More Peru - Premier League
31 Jul 2024
21:00 Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos Analysis →
23:15 Cultural San vs Sporting Cristal Analysis →