Birmingham 2-1 Wigan Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 31 Aug 2024

Birmingham
2-1 HT 1-0
Wigan Athletic
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Birmingham vs Wigan Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
26%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 27% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.82
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.3
X/1
21%
3.57
X/2
9%
12.4
X/X
8%
6.39
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
12%
9.73
2/X
7%
18.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-14.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
15%
+11.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Wigan Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Wigan Athletic EU Bookmakers 18%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
1.59/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.61
-50% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 69%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.0 Crosses 16.8
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Birmingham vs Wigan Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wigan Athletic
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 0.97
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
256 Passes 307
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
20.08.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic İNCL
01.01.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 2-3 HT 1-1 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic İNCL
01.10.2019 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
27.04.2019 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic İNCL
22.12.2018 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic 0-3 HT 0-2 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL

Birmingham 2-1 Wigan Athletic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-1
AWAY Wigan Athletic
1.60 xG 0.87
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
577 Passes 245
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Wigan Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham edged past Wigan Athletic 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Birmingham had 66% of the ball to Wigan Athletic's 34%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wigan Athletic led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Birmingham and 1.17 for Wigan Athletic.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Wigan Athletic?

Birmingham 2-1 Wigan Athletic in the England - 1st Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Wigan Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 51%, draw 24%, Wigan Athletic 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ BTTS No
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