Napoli 2-1 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 31 Aug 2024

Napoli
2-1 HT 0-1
Parma
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.43
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.5 — our 26% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.72
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.05
X/1
15%
3.64
X/2
9%
14.0
X/X
11%
6.73
2/1
10%
21.25
2/2
7%
10.6
2/X
7%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
66%
-14.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.5pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.66/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.91
-12% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
19.8 Crosses 13.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Parma
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.70 xG 0.73
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
598 Passes 296
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
31.01.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
20.09.2020 Parma Parma 0-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
22.07.2020 Parma Parma 2-1 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
14.12.2019 Napoli Napoli 1-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
24.02.2019 Parma Parma 0-4 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
26.09.2018 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-1
AWAY Parma
2.19 xG 1.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
29 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 334
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
58 Box Touches 22
32 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli squeezed past Parma 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Napoli had 54% of the ball to Parma's 46%, shots finished 29-13, expected goals 2.19 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 0.67 for Parma.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Parma?

Napoli 2-1 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Napoli 51%, draw 26%, Parma 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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